We are entering the last month of 2024, a year that will end up with ~ +900kSEK. Great results of couse, but it would have been nice to have reach 1MSEK.

It's time to look ahead and set goals for 2025. I don't think 1M will be possible this year, but maybe 700, which would mean 7M could be achieved. This will be a first goal. I added the goal and saw that with deposits included, the required return ends up at 8.64%.

The deposits look to land at around 230. This amount comes mainly from salary and on that front I don't see anything interesting happening next year. So the aim is to deposit 200k in 2025 as well.

Perhaps the most exciting goal for 2025 will be to reach 1M in total profit from P2P. This looks achievable in around October.

With today's update, the total capital reached 6M. The total capital currently looks to increase by 1 013 088 this year and land at 6 447 629.

Of course it feels good to pass this limit this year, but at the same I pretty much had to reach it now, if the 20M goal is to be reasonable.

EUR has increased a bit and is currently at 11.71 and since everything is converted to SEK, this is one of the explanations. Another is the constant deposits and of course the stock exchange's pleasant year so far with OMXSPI up 10.88%.

2023 is over and a new year awaits. Time to set goals for 2024.

Since this project is about becoming free, I look a lot at the average income calculated backwards over different time periods. This average income should be what replaces my salary over time. And this is also where I focus when setting goals. I already cover my expenses with passive income. I do this with investments that average about 10%. I am quite active and constantly try to stay updated on what is happening with the investments I have made. At the same time, I am looking for new opportunities. This of course takes a lot of time.

The best would be to spend less time but still be able to return enough. For example, go down from about 10% to safer investments of about 4%. For example, if everything was in a dividend portfolio.

It is impossible to predict how prices in society will develop, but a somewhat preliminary figure I have in mind is 50k. I want to be able to get 50k a month and preferably with a portfolio which only needs to yield 4%. That is, the amount needed is 15M. Then with price increases, I would say that about 20M is a good benchmark. That would give 67k with 4% or 167k with a continued high-risk portfolio (10%).

The goal of 20M that I set, has an end date of 2033-12-31, i.e. pretty much exactly in 10 years. Going from a little over 5 to 20 in 10 years is very difficult. It currently requires 14.15%, which I cannot expect to succeed with. Maybe I will have to give up this goal and focus on getting by with a lower amount or higher risk in the portfolio.

Anyway, I think the results in the next 1-2 years will be very important. This year I will focus on saving as much as possible. I hope to reach 6M before the end of the year and aim to make deposits of 200k.

I have set certain goals, which can be seen above. The first two goals have a negative return requirement, meaning they have been achieved. The other two are around 14% in terms of the required return. If you look under

Total

you can see that for example the 20M goal's RateRequired has increased quite slowly in the past year. It jumped up a bit when the tax was deducted. It is worth noting here, however, that a 14% return on investments is not required, but deposits also come into play here. The figure therefore represents the required return assuming that no more deposits are made. I will most likely not be able to reach 14%, and with last year's level of monthly savings, things are slowly going in the wrong direction. I have increased my monthly savings for a short time now, but I don't think it will be enough as it looks right now.

A lot of things are happening on the platforms I use:

Esketit - I have chosen to reduce loans from Jordan. Trying to phase out this money in other regions.

RoboCash - No problems, everythings working fine.

PeerBerry - Feels like demand is much greater than supply. I have been active and invested manually, which solved the problem. However, they announced on 3/11 that they will not offer any more loans in Poland after the end of the year. I have a fairly large share in Poland. Instead, they will offer loans from Mexico, Tanzania, Nigeria, Columbia and South Africa.

EstateGuru - I'm waiting a bit here to see how they solve the fairly large share of loans in recovery.

SaveLend - Small returns, so this platform is slowly being phased out.

Mintos - Share of loans in recovery has not increased for a very long time now. Current investments are woking fine.

Income - Have experienced some cash drag. They have also had problems with Vivus where the buy back guarantee did not work as expected.

LenderMarket - Here there is more and more in the so-called Pending payments, they obviously have problems with CreditStar Spain. If you check the details of the loans, I don't think it looks that bad. 1-2 late payments otherwise no problem. However, it is ominous that such a large proportion of the Spanish loans have the same behavior.

In July, Lendermarket announced that they would start reporting Pending Payments. That is interest and repayments that have not yet reached Lendermarket.

Previously, when I made a withdrawal, it could take 2-3 weeks for the money to reach my account. The withdrawals I make now after Pending Payments have started to be reported, take about 2 days.

I assume the long times before were because the money had not yet reached my account. I tried to withdraw money that was not completely available.

I have just over 4kEUR in pending right now, which I think is a rather large amount. I think with LM you have to be patient and don't expect to lose any money. If the worst happens, it's about a 113kSEK loss, but I don't think we'll end up in that position with LM.

It's been a good start of the year at the stock market. Investments in P2P are showing mixed results.

Esketit - 14.39% - Works well, no problems. They have introduced Business loans and Installment loans. I have adjusted the auto invest to also invest a smaller amount into these. Planning to invest more on the platform. It is possible that some of the capital from EstateGuru will end up here.

RoboCash - 11.79% - No problems, works fine.

PeerBerry - 11.33% - About 20% has been uninvested for a short time, which is bad. However, they have handled war-related loans very well. I have high confidence in the platform and hope the cash flow goes away.

EstateGuru - 9.51% - Feels like more and more projects are having problems and im not making further investments right now. Ill withdraw the capital thats been waiting for new projects.

LenderMarket - 13.26% - Quite a large proportion of loans are late with payments, this means that the income from the platform has increased a lot due to late payment fees. Im not investing any more until they have decreased the pile of late loans. I think it will loosen up when the poor Christmas months are over.

SaveLend - 7.05% - About 14% is uninvested. I have had problems with cash drag for a long time. My autoinvest is already quite generous in terms of the amount of capital per loan. Its a bit tempting to withdraw the uninvested capital as the stock market seems to be in a better mood.

Mintos - 11.15% - Reinvests the interest but confidence is still quite damaged after how the problems with wowwo were handled.

Trine - Shell bought Daystar which freed up some capital. Withdrawing all the capital...

Kameo - Their success fee and the slightly shaky housing market mean that Ill continue to leave the platform. 4 loans left, all of which expire during the year.

As I said, the stock market is doing well and I continue with a fairly aggressive monthly savings of about 30k a month. Investing quite broadly.

So to summarize: EstateGuru and LenderMarket are a bit worrying. Several platforms are showing cash drag.

Unless the war takes a new direction, I think the stock market can do well in the future. I would have preferred to see a bigger decline to be able to buy cheaper.

I have lent out stable coins through YouHolder, CoinLoan and Hodlnaut. I was close to introducing Celsius as well. I'm glad that never happened as this platform is now having problems.

Unfortunately, today Hodlnaut has stopped all withdrawals from the platform and my guess is that this is the end for them. In the worst case, my investments with Hodlnaut are lost.

I have earned about 14k on YouHodler and Coinloan. About 1k on Hodlnaut. YouHodler and CoinLoan have worked flawlessly but after Vauld, Celsius and now Hodlnaut, I choose to reduce this kind of investments.

If I lose all my capital in Hodlnaut, my crypto lending investment is back about 30k right now. However, I will wait a bit before counting them as lost.

At the moment I am slowly but surely withdrawing from Kameo, Mintos and Trine. This means that I will keep Peerberry, Lendermarket, Robocash, Savelend and EstateGuru. This means that the number of platforms is halved, which negatively affects diversification.

Savelend has dropped some in interest. On my invested capital:

2020 - 13.79%

2021 - 9.08%

Last 12 months - 7.80%

I saw a comment from the CEO regarding this, that the number of investors have increased and also the invested capital, which has contributed to lower interest rates. The figures are before tax, if I interpret the statistics correctly. That is ~5.5% after tax last year.

I would like to get 2 more platforms. Maybe a third as a replacement for savelend if they continue to yield poorly.

Have looked at these three a bit

Esketit - Launched in 2020. Seems to have the majority of their loans in Jordan. These loans yield about 14%. Could be an alternative but I don't want to invest a larger amount in the same country in the same actor (Money for Finance).

Bondster - An intermediary, just like Mintos, i.e. they offer loans from other actors. I would rather not waste money on intermediaries.

Income - Launched in 2021. Intermediary.

If I had to guess, I think inflation will continue to give higher interest rates which will lower the stock market further. This could provide a very attractive level to enter with more capital. Maybe exchange Savelend for shares within the next year.

The Turkish lira has fallen in value quite sharply in the past year. Mintos has lent EUR to Wowwo, who in turn has lent lira to their borrower. However, they believe that Wowwo's actions and risk-taking are the lender's problem. Their proposal is that Mintos be paid the amount that their lira loans are worth in EUR according to the new level. This would mean a loss of about 40%. Questions on that?

Mintos has a different opinion of course and believes that the lenders should get the full amount back. We'll see how this goes. In the worst case, I lose about 20% of my total profit from Mintos.

This is how I think at the moment

Increase

Savelend - average of 8.92% is ok. I like that they are so active on social media with Savelend.

PeerBerry - had to go down to 9% when I had problems with cash drag. Averages about 11%

Lendermarket - works fine without problems with just over 13% right now.

RoboCash - no problems. About 11% EstateGuru - a little short of loans. Takes time to build up a good diversification but otherwise EG returns about 10% and no lost money so far.

Wait

Mintos - feels like there is a big distance between Mintos and their LOs. When there are problems, it often feels like they want completely different things.

Kameo - hard to keep up with the loans and the interest rates have dropped a bit

Too poor return

Trine - pointless returns. Feels more like charity

Lendify - average return of 5.29*0.7=3.7% after tax is not impressive

Bondora - delivers what they promise, 6.75%. But falls short in the competition.

Today's update shows that the average income from p2p investments in the last month exceeds 10k. This has been a goal and I didn't think it would be reached so quickly. Feels good but now we are aiming for 15k.

Mintos has been a bit of an anchor in the portfolio, they have been the largest player. However, quite recently they announced that a number of lenders have chosen to buy back their loans. This has meant that I have recently received extra interest payments, which is unfortunately part of the explanation for my reaching 10k/month. The lenders in question have been among the highest ranked on Mintos, meaning I have had quite a large capital invested with them.

I am experiencing so-called cash drag, because of this. A temporary solution has been to invest through credit star. However, I already have access to these loans through Lendermarket, and at a higher interest rate.

I feel that I have pushed the situation too far now and that it is time to look for other opportunities. Will stop investing in credit star. Will also not invest the money in lenders with lower ratings. Expects to halve the capital on Mintos in the long term.

What I value the most and strive for in everything I do is freedom. I have an exit plan, to save enough so that I can live on the returns. When this goal is achieved, I am free to do what I want. Maybe then I feel like continuing to work. In that case, I will do it. Maybe I don't feel like continuing to work, in that case I won't. But having the freedom to choose is my biggest goal right now.

How much money do you need? How free are you? If I calculate on the capital I report on this page, I will reach 43% this month.

Fire

I have been investing in various properties through EstateGuru for just over six months now. My focus has been to diversify my portfolio well. This has resulted in a spread over 31 projects with an average investment of just over 50 EUR with an average interest rate of about 10%.

I have read that other investors have had problems with certain projects through Tessin and SBP Nordic. These platforms have a fairly high minimum amount. For me it is about 20k. I consider good diversification to be spreading your investment over many projects on several different platforms. If you do the math, it becomes an enormous amount that is required to achieve good diversification if a mini investment is 20k. EstateGuru has a mini investment of 50 EUR which I like.

Of these 31 projects I have invested in, there are now 2 investments that are struggling. Both of these are in the same project. I can read that "Currently we are looking for a legal partner to initiate enforcement proceedings.". My thought is that its in the bad times that you see the real truth. So this should be interesting to follow.

UPDATE: 29/3 EG announces the following: "We are preparing the documentation for termination. As the borrower has not fulfilled their contractual duties and it is EstateGuru’s estimate that the borrowers liquidity is troubling."

UPDATE: 12/7 status of the project is now "defaulted". Let's see what happens. I have unfortunately invested 73 EUR and if this project goes wrong I will lose 150 EUR in the worst case. That is a total of about 700 bucks in the worst case. The following can be read "Warning letter has been sent to the borrower. We are preparing the documentation for termination."

UPDATE: 2/9 "The application to the Swedish Enforcement Authority (the "SEA") has been submitted. Once proceedings at the SEA have been initiated, it takes (according to information from the SEA) approximately 4 months from the point in time that the SEA sends out information regarding the claim until the SEA has made a decision."

UPDATE: 3/3-22 Got all the capital back now. However, no interest.

Today's data update shows that I pass 5000 in average income per month. This has been a first goal and it feels good to have managed to achieve this.

But now I'm aiming for 10k and have some thoughts on how I should do it. I think it may take a while to succeed with this if I'm going to continue to only count income from P2P. I'm quite heavy in Kameo right now. However, the gang behind the platform seems to be satisfied with the number of users and is now dumping the interest rates. An average interest rate of about 5.7% for February (8.2*0.7) is not impressive. I may therefore phase out Kameo for Mintos and Peerberry, which are both around 10% after tax. At the same time, it would mean that I become quite heavy on these platforms, which negatively affects diversification.

So if the trend I'm seeing at the moment holds, I will reduce Kameo and increase Mintos, Peerberry and stocks.

I have chosen to sell my holding in Bondora. Bondora promises a constant return of 6.75%, which they have delivered. Withdrawing the money was very smooth and fast. I really have nothing negative to say about the platform.

But with the same reasoning as why I left Lendify, I believe there are better alternatives. For example, Mintos, Peerberry and Savelend give much better returns. And with my strong diversification, I don't feel that Bondora is keeping up with the competitors.

I could very well imagine returning to Bondora in the future. But probably under different market conditions.

It's already February 2021 and I want to give my view on the market situation.

The stock market seems to be going up. But the high valuations mean that I remain cautious when it comes to investing in the stock market. Staying uninvested is not an option given inflation. The latest figures indicate inflation of 1.7%.,

That's why I'm still heavy in p2p. I make smaller and broader purchases on the stock market. As well as in individual companies that I find interesting.

I have chosen to sell my loans in Lendify. I see Lendify as a stable player and an alternative to having the money in the old bank. I have had about 6% in my auto-Long account. Before that, this money was in a savings account with 0.7%.

But the other platforms I use have delivered much better returns. And since I focus on always having a strong diversification, I do not feel that the risk on these other platforms is high enough to motivate me to use Lendify. After tax, Lendify has given just over 4% compared to about 9% on Mintos and Savelend.

You can handpick your loans and thus get a different risk on your investment. However, this takes some time. I would like to see Lendify enable investments based on a strategy you create yourself, i.e. similar to what other players already have in place.

With Lendify out of the picture, the current distribution of the currently invested capital is as follows. In order to achieve a good risk spread between the different investment type, I will take it easy with further investments in Kameo.

Interest on interest is one of the mantras that financial nerds repeat every now and then. And rightly so, as it is a nice phenomenon that you should pay attention to and take part in.

Click here to test with your data and see what your return could be:

Rate

I have invested in about 20 projects through Trine. Very small amounts as the investments are a bit special. The combination of solar cells in Africa, interest of about 7% and a default rate of about 2%, I don't think is financially interesting. I see my small investment in Trine as a mixture of profit-seeking and charity. I think you have a good chance of making a profit but little chance of making any major profits.

Today there was an update from one of my investments in Nigeria that the lack of hard currency i.e. USD, is delaying repayments. However, the project is delivering well and the inflow of capital in the local currency Naira looked good. It remains to be seen how this investment develops...

2021-01-13 UPDATE: All investments in Nigeria are now back in phase with their repayments.

We are halfway into November and I want to give my view of the market situation and what I choose to invest in.

We are at or at least very close to an all-time high on the stock market. As always, it is impossible to know, but in times of pandemic with increasing unemployment and a weak economy, I have chosen to stay almost completely out of the stock market. I don't really have the time to invest with a short horizon, but I think that the investments I choose I want to hold for at least a year. So since I don't think the stock market is that attractive at the moment, I have chosen to lock my capital in various loans such as p2p. This with hope that we will have a different situation on the stock market in 1-2 years.

With leverage, you get, in simple terms, greater fluctuations in your investment. If the underlying instrument goes up 1%, a Bull goes up 1*X, where X stands for the leverage you have chosen. For example, BULL OMX X5 goes up 5% for every percent that OMXS30 goes up. If OMXS30, on the other hand, goes down 1%, BULL OMX X5 goes down 5%. A Bear works the opposite way, it goes up when the underlying goes down. That is, BEAR OMX X5 goes up 5% if omxs30 goes down 1% and down 5% if OMXS30 goes up 1%.

However, these instruments are relatively new and I was therefore curious about how they would have developed during the different phases that we have had on the stock market in the last 20-30 years. How would a BEAR x5 have behaved during the IT crash? Set a date and investigate for yourself:

BullBear

A common argument against these products, which I often hear, is that they are not good in the long term. This is true if the underlying instrument lacks a clear trend. If the underlying is hovering around a certain level, you should avoid leveraged funds. The need for a clear trend increases the higher the leverage you use.

I have been investing in real estate loans via Kameo for a year. Unfortunately, the number of users has recently increased a lot, which has led to loans being quickly filled. I have found a solution to the problem. But I have also looked around for alternatives to Kameo. I have therefore started investing through EstateGuru. As usual, I am testing with a small amount for evaluation.

Compared a couple of loans between the two platforms and got the feeling that EG offers slightly higher interest rates for the same LTV %. (Of course, there may be other parameters that also come into play when the interest rates are set.)

TL;DR 1.27%

In a regular deposit you pay 30% on the profit but in an ISK you pay tax based on the total value. If you have invested 100,000 and manage to get 30% one year, i.e. you have earned 30k, then the following applies:

Regular deposit: Then 30% of 30k is lost. You therefore pay 9,000 in tax and have earned a total of 21k.

ISK: The tax in an ISK is determined by "The government loan interest rate on 30/11 the previous year + an additional 1 percentage point, but at least 1.25 percent" and since the government loan interest rate on 30/11-19 was -0.09, you end up below the minimum limit and the so-called standard income is therefore 1.25% of the capital base. But an income tax of 30% means the tax is 1.25 * 0.3 = 0.375 %. The tax is therefore 130k*0.00375 = 487.50, meaning you have 129,512.50 left

In this example, you would have earned 9000 - 487.50 = 8,512.50 by using one ISK.